THE OBAMA BLUES – We vote by state in presidential elections, and the bad news keeps pouring in for President Obama.

Obama carried North Carolina by 14,000 votes in 2008.  As the L.A. Times points out, things are different now:

Obama prevailed, winning by fewer than 14,000 votes to become the first Democrat to carry North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Obama's campaign rode several advantages to break through: money, momentum and a compelling message.

Now he is an incumbent president saddled with a struggling economy. Unemployment here is 10.1%, a full point higher than the national average. A new poll showed Obama's approval rating in North Carolina at 43%.

"He won it by 14,000 votes, so any decline in the president's fortunes is going to put North Carolina in jeopardy.… His approval ratings are down in the state to the lowest levels in his tenure, and that will make it quite difficult for him to hold onto the state next year," said Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at North Carolina State University.

Obama isn't giving up on North Carolina. If he rebounds here, at the minimum he'll force his Republican opponent to commit resources in a state the GOP has identified as a top target. Republicans see the economy as a major vulnerability for Obama in a state that has lost 142,000 jobs since he took office.

Democrats want to show they can preserve their foothold in the Republicans' Southern base. Troubling as it is for Obama to see his approval rating slip, he stacks up well against the competition. A survey this month by Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based Democratic polling company, showed him tied in North Carolina with Texas Gov. Rick Perry and leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by one point.

And in Virginia, via The Politico:

Both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry would have a good shot at beating President Barack Obama in Virginia if the 2012 election were held today, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

Obama's approval rating is just 40 percent among Virginia voters and 54 percent disapprove of his job performance. Independents disapprove of the president, 62 percent to 29 percent.

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The president currently trails Romney by 2 points in Virginia, 42 percent to 44 percent, and leads Perry by the same slim margin.

COMMENT:  Please note that Mr. Obama doesn't do badly in head-to-head matchups against specific Republican candidates.  That is his ace in the hole.  He remains personally popular, whereas Jimmy Carter wasn't personally popular when he ran against Reagan in 1980. 

Republicans plainly have the advantage in an election season in which the national administration is failing.  But they will need more than negative images of Obama failures.  They will need a candidate who can generate political warmth, not just tolerance, and who has a coherent program Americans can embrace.  That is not an easy order given the current state of the Republican Party.

I want to win next year, not just make ideological points.  But I wouldn't be measuring the drapes in the Oval Office just yet.

September 15, 2011